Thursday, July 30, 2009

Average Bmi For Female In Canada

Gentlemen, the Depression is over

The crisis is over, the crisis has reached the negative peak, the worst is over, everything turns out for the best: this is the message that the media are presenting ever more insistently in recent days. If the crisis was, as claimed by Berlusconi, only psychological , then these statements of optimism may also have a positive effect but we know that it is not.

E 'disturbing statements today then read that closely resemble those of eighty years ago.

Berlusconi - July 22

" The crisis is vented to the financial system and those who had Do it and do . We look forward to recovery, we will be safe. "Moreover, the thesis of the Knight is unknown. For Berlusconi should not be" afraid of fear, "the crisis is over and the psychological " negative "is the real brake to recovery.

Herbert Hoover - May 1, 1930

Although the market crash happened just six months ago, I am convinced that we have passed the worst time and continuing our joint efforts we will have a speedy recovery. There were no significant failures of banks and industries e. Although this danger is behind us.

Obama - July 29

" The news is stunning, but we're beginning of the end of the recession . So the U.S. president Barack Obama, commenting on the health of the U.S. economy before an audience of ordinary citizens in Raleigh, North Carolina. "We are no longer in free fall, the financial system is collapsing. We lose 50% fewer jobs than last year. House prices are rising after three years." Sure, he admits, this is not consolation "people who have lost their jobs, but we are in the right direction . In hard times, however, are not yet finished"

Herbert Hoover - June, 1930

"Gentlemen, you arrived 60 days late. Depression ended "

Harvard Economic Society, August 30, 1930

" Depression has nearly exhausted its momentum "

Harvard Economic Society, November 15, 1930

" We the end of the declining phase of the Depression "

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Why Do Babies Get Wind

angle Nostradamus L'Istituto di Studi ed Analisi Economica

During the debate in the House of DPEF here is a ' other provision economy, this time by the' Institute of Studies and Economic Analyses (ISAE)

GDP, in 2009, will mark a decline of 5.3% according to data adjusted for calendar (-5.2% in rough terms). The Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses (ISAE) in the ratio "Forecasts for the Italian economy" confirms the estimates presented in Parliament during consideration of the budget document. According to the ISAE
" the worst of the economic cycle should have been passed in Italy " but "the shooting will start very gradually, however, highlighted in annual average figures only from 2010," when the GDP mark a +0.2%, according to figures adjusted for the number of working days (+0.3% in termini grezzi). Secondo l'Isae, il secondo trimestre del 2009 sarà ancora negativo, ma « un segno positivo nell'evoluzione del prodotto lordo dovrebbe tornare a evidenziarsi a partire dal terzo trimestre ».

Quanto al 2010, sulla ripresa dovrebbe influire «il progressivo rafforzamento del commercio mondiale». I provvedimenti decisi dal Governo nella manovra estiva, sempre secondo l'Istituto, «contribuirebbero a dare sostegno alla domanda interna».

Alleluia! La crisi è ai minimi e dal prossimo trimestre si riparte! Prima di stappare lo champagne Is it better to check what to expect a few months ago ...

October 9, 2008

zero growth for the Italian economy in 2008 and the ' Next year a modest +0.2% . These new economic forecasts made by ISAE .[..] These elements could affect the progress of the European Union in the early months of 2009 only in the second half of next year there would be a recovery for the stabilization of financial stress and lowering inflation. The euro-zone GDP increase by 0.5% on average next year , after a change of 1, 1% estimated for 2008 .[..] In the labor market, the trend is still relatively positive view of the bad economic situation: in 2008 the 'employment would increase by 0.9%; in 2009, the creation of jobs would slow to 0.3%

What do you say? Replace the champagne al fresco?

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Were The Best Place 2 By Diat Pills

Superenalotto: la lotteria dei prolet

One in 622 million.

This is the probability of guessing the sequence of six numbers that would allow us to get our hands on 107 million euro lottery jackpot that make up the. Just one euro to play and with a little 'luck you'll get rich ... .. but it's worth it?

The mathematical theory says no. Superenalotto has a gambling and as such provides the dealer an advantage over players always start. When we go to the casino and play roulette, this advantage is the presence of numbers "0" and "00" which mean that our expected return is less than zero

Imagine playing 10 € on red in roulette that has both "0" and double "0" and then has 38 numbers.

In 18 cases out of 38 wins twice our bet, that will win while 10 others in 20 cases out of 38 we lose 10 euro played.

Practically every time we play roulette 10 € we are losing, on average, 53 cents, and therefore our expected return is 5.3% ... negative.

So much for a gambling casino run by one or by a private individual. But what about the Lotto which is basically managed by the State?

Things are even worse ..

Now that the jackpot has risen to 107 million euro, after more than six months of play, 50 euro cents for each toy, our winning the wait is about 17 cents. The expected net return is less then 34% .

Quando sono iniziate le estrazioni, però, il jackpot era di soli 10,9 milioni di euro e quindi la vincita attesa era circa un decimo di quella attuale!

Rendimento atteso di chi ha giocato a febbraio? Un secco meno 96%

Vincere al Superenalotto ti cambia la vita!

Il ragionamento tipico è di questo tipo: so che la probabilità infima di vincita rende la mia giocata un investment at a loss but the reward is so high that any winnings would change my life and I want to try a few euro.

course € 107 million to change the life of a person and not the reasoning itself is flawless, except that the "few euro," played three times a week, to become end a significant item of expenditure in household budgets . Most worrying, however, is that this way of thinking denotes a complete lack of confidence now in the possibility of improving their living conditions through work and savings .

This resembles the condition of the Prole of 1984, Orwell's masterpiece, whose only hope was, just happened a lottery.

spoke clearly Lottery. Winston, as he was gone forward about thirty paces, took a looked back. They were still arguing, with some faces on and passionate. The Lottery, with its showy weekly prizes, was the only public event at which interested by Prole. It was more than likely that the Lottery was the reason main, if not the only one for which millions of Prole still had some attachment to life. It was their major source of pleasure, their margin of folly, took the place of drugs, intellectual stimulant. When it came to the Lottery, even people who could barely read and write became capable of the calculations more difficult and surprising effort of memory. There was a whole category of people who made a living just by selling more complicated winning systems, predictions and lucky charms. Winston did not have the hands-on, with regard the Lottery, which was the business of the Ministry of Plenty, but he knew anyway (as everyone knew, the party) that the premiums were largely entirely fictitious. Only small sums were actually paid, but the winners of major awards (which were, on paper, even fabulous) people were simply invented, which did not exist at all. Since it was impossible to make effective communication between one place and one from Oceania, this trick was very easy to implement.

The differences today are not that many. Of course the prizes are not fictitious and are delivered normally, but if we think that the last successful extraction now or in six months, have been played 1.4 billion euro in Superenalotto we can well see that there is so much difference between Orwell's Ministry of Abundance and our Treasury.

Friday, July 24, 2009

Isabella Soprano Girdle

Inflazione? Calcolatela da solo!

Ten days ago, Istat reported for "inflation", which refer to the month of June.

inflation in June falls to 0.5% , by 0.9% in May. This was communicated by ISTAT, confirming the preliminary estimate. The inflation rate thus leads to the lowest level since September 1968, which stood at 0.4%. prices on a monthly basis, are increased by 0.1 .

Anyone familiar with the Austrian school of economics knows that inflation is quite another thing while the percentage change in a price index can not help but measure only one of the consequences of 'inflation.

Another concern relates then the basket of goods which ISTAT statistics are compiled and its importance in our lives everyday. The Institute of Statistics, in fact, assigns to each product category (and there are almost two hundred) a weight percentage and then going to add anything to dial a number, the price index, the variations of which are reported monthly.

It is not told (indeed it never is) that the weights assigned by Istat reflect our habits of consumption that is virtually certain that the cost of living , considered as the cost of our lives , is very different from that drawn up by ISTAT.

Have you ever wished you could compile your own personal shopping basket and see the impact on Istat data? From now able to do it.

This simple program allows you to fill your basket of goods and services on which to base the estimate of inflation, while using the price changes recorded by the National Statistics .

What you do is very simple:

- select an asset from the drop-down list (eg pasta)

- assigned a weight of that object (ie how much you have spent in pasta nell’ultimo mese)

- clickate su aggiungi

Quando avete finito fate click sul bottone calcola ed in una finestra apparirà il dato dell’inflazione secondo il vostro paniere rapportato con il dato fornito dall’Istat per il giugno 2009.

Scaricalo!

Buon divertimento

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Ringing In Ear And Earache Haemorrhage

Ma quale paradosso!

In un recente post , Paul Krugman parla di nuovo del cosiddetto paradosso del risparmio:

"The paradox of saving works more or less like this. Suppose that a great multitude of people decide to save more You might think that this necessarily produce an increase in national saving. But if the drop in consumption means that the economy falls into recession, then the income will decline and with them the savings, other things being equal. This decline in savings can largely or completely neutralize the initial rise "

This paradox was popularized by Keynes in General Theory in which he stated that:

“Sebbene sia improbabile che l’ammontare dei suoi risparmi abbia una qualche significativa influenza sul suo reddito, le reazioni causate dal livello dei suoi consumi sui redditi degli altri fa sì che sia impossibile per tutti gli individui risparmiare una qualsiasi somma data. Ogni tentativo di risparmiare di più riducendo i consumi avrò un effetto tale sugli altri redditi che è destinato a sconfiggersi da solo.”

Cosa significa? Secondo Keynes parlare di risparmio o investimento è la stessa cosa in quanto per lui i risparmi sono sempre uguali agli investimenti.

L’interpretazione pre-keynesiana di questa equivalenza funzionava più o meno così: perché vi siano delle risorse disponibili per effettuare degli investimenti bisogna che prima queste siano state risparmiate. Un’economia senza risparmi è un’economia che non può crescere se non consumando lo stock di capitale accumulato.

Ma Keynes intende dire un’altra cosa. L’economista inglese, infatti, sostiene che siano gli investimenti a determinare il livello dei risparmi e non il contrario. In un’economia in cui non ci sono investimenti non vi saranno nemmeno risparmi e tutto ciò indipendentemente the willingness of individuals and vice versa a high level of investment leads to a high level of savings regardless of the will of individuals.

In practice if companies decide to invest like crazy and you can rest assured that every euro of spending your paycheck: the Keynesian magic will seek to increase your income so that the bank account will be filled by only.

As often happens in the Keynesian world is then reversed the cause-effect, leading to claims that are contrary to common thought, not because it is wrong but because they are meaningless.

But Krugman said he had found in the data confirms the existence of the paradox of savings! In fact, American families have saved more, but yes the aggregate savings has declined. The Nobel Prize triumph shows us a graph that shows what happened

Am I wrong or maybe there's a simpler explanation to the decline in aggregate savings?

Sunday, July 19, 2009

What Do Berlin Fingerboards Come With

L'angolo di Nostradamus: Bernanke!

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

How Do You Beat Scram Alcohol Monitoring Anklet

L'angolo Nostradamus: Il DPEF e l'Italia

These days it is preparing the so-called Planning Document (Document of economic and financial). What is it? It 's a document in which the state enters its forecasts for economic developments over the medium term (usually for three years that follow) and establishes the goals it wants to achieve (debt, deficit / GDP ratio, etc.. )

The document just submitted expected for 2009, a decline of about 5.2 percentage points of GDP but is optimistic for 2010, assuming an economic recovery with growth of 0.5%.

As always, when making a forecast, it may be interesting (and funny) to see what had been said in the past to assess how reliable "economic models" which are based on these data (unless Berlusconi and Tremonti pull a big nut to settle percentage)

DPEF 2008 -2001: Prodi Government - Minister Padoa Schioppa (2007)

In 2008 the growth rate of gross domestic product should be equal to 1 , 9 percent . In three years the average annual growth of GDP is forecast 1, 7 percent.

DPEF 2009-20013: Berlusconi Government - Minister Tremonti (2008)

Based on current projections, in 2009 the growth rate of gross domestic product would be equal to 0.9 percent . [..] In the next four years the average annual growth of GDP is forecast slightly below 1, 5 percent .

We can rest easy!

Coversyl & Grapefruits

L'eutanasia del rentier

Viewed the revival of Keynesian theory, and since many might not take kindly to the solutions of the so-called neokeynesiani but remain firm and confident in supporting the considerations of Keynes, it may be useful to read some passages of the General Theory (and the Keynesians 'have never read the sacred text of their master?)

General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

Page 314-315

The situation, which I regard as typical, is not one in which capital is so abundant that the community as a whole has no reasonable use for it, but one in which investments are made in conditions that are unstable and can not last because they are made on the basis of expectations that are bound to be disappointed.

may be the case, and often it really happens, that the illusions of the boom make sure that the particular capital goods are produced in such abundance that the product is, for each criterion, a waste of resources, which can happen even in the absence of a boom. Leads, you may say, at malinvestimento.

But above and beyond that there is an essential feature of boom ovvero che investimento che in condizioni di piena occupazione renderanno, diciamo, il 2% sono fatti con l’aspettativa che rendano il 6% e come tali conteggiati. Quando arriva la disillusione, invece, l’aspettativa viene rimpiazzata da un “errore di pessimismo” con il risultato che gli investimenti che avrebbero reso il 2% in condizioni di piena occupazione ora hanno un rendimento atteso negativo; ed il risultante collasso dei nuovi investimenti conduce ad uno stato di disoccupazione in cui gli investimenti, che avrebbero reso il 2%, hanno davvero un rendimento negativo.

Il rimedio al boom non è un più alto tasso di interesse ma uno più basso perché ciò renderebbe il boom perenne. Il rimedio al boom non è il tentativo di eliminarlo per tenerci in uno stato di semi-crisi, ma di abolire le crisi e mantenerci permanentemente in un stato di quasi boom

p.371-372

Si giustifica un tasso di interesse moderatamente alto con la necessità di produrre un sufficiente incentivo a risparmiare. But it was shown that the actual level of savings is necessarily determined by the level of investment (for Keynes savings = investment ever and the second is to determine the first and not vice versa note) and the level of the latter is promoted by a low interest rate provided it does not try to stimulate it in this way beyond the level which corresponds to full employment (if we do, according to Keynes, we get only price inflation). So it is in our best interest to reduce the interest rate so as to equate the marginal efficiency of capital in a situation where there is full employment.

[..]

Who has an interest in capital gains because capital is scarce, the same way as the landowner may receive a rent because land is scarce. But while there may be real reasons for the scarcity of land there is no real reason for the scarcity of capital [according to Keynes as long as you print money] Therefore, in practice [..] an increase in money supply can be implemented until the capital ceases to be a little [..] that means euthanasia of the rentier and euthanasia as a result of the growing power of the oppressive capitalist to exploit the scarcity of capital "

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Novaform Vs Tempurpedic

Ma il governo deve fare qualcosa!

How many times have we heard that without government intervention in the economic crisis would result in the loss of millions of jobs?



here Well maybe Nancy Pelosi has a little 'over the top. However, these were the reasons for embarking on a huge stimulus to the economy and these are the first results ...