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Superenalotto: la lotteria dei prolet

One in 622 million.

This is the probability of guessing the sequence of six numbers that would allow us to get our hands on 107 million euro lottery jackpot that make up the. Just one euro to play and with a little 'luck you'll get rich ... .. but it's worth it?

The mathematical theory says no. Superenalotto has a gambling and as such provides the dealer an advantage over players always start. When we go to the casino and play roulette, this advantage is the presence of numbers "0" and "00" which mean that our expected return is less than zero

Imagine playing 10 € on red in roulette that has both "0" and double "0" and then has 38 numbers.

In 18 cases out of 38 wins twice our bet, that will win while 10 others in 20 cases out of 38 we lose 10 euro played.

Practically every time we play roulette 10 € we are losing, on average, 53 cents, and therefore our expected return is 5.3% ... negative.

So much for a gambling casino run by one or by a private individual. But what about the Lotto which is basically managed by the State?

Things are even worse ..

Now that the jackpot has risen to 107 million euro, after more than six months of play, 50 euro cents for each toy, our winning the wait is about 17 cents. The expected net return is less then 34% .

Quando sono iniziate le estrazioni, però, il jackpot era di soli 10,9 milioni di euro e quindi la vincita attesa era circa un decimo di quella attuale!

Rendimento atteso di chi ha giocato a febbraio? Un secco meno 96%

Vincere al Superenalotto ti cambia la vita!

Il ragionamento tipico è di questo tipo: so che la probabilità infima di vincita rende la mia giocata un investment at a loss but the reward is so high that any winnings would change my life and I want to try a few euro.

course € 107 million to change the life of a person and not the reasoning itself is flawless, except that the "few euro," played three times a week, to become end a significant item of expenditure in household budgets . Most worrying, however, is that this way of thinking denotes a complete lack of confidence now in the possibility of improving their living conditions through work and savings .

This resembles the condition of the Prole of 1984, Orwell's masterpiece, whose only hope was, just happened a lottery.

spoke clearly Lottery. Winston, as he was gone forward about thirty paces, took a looked back. They were still arguing, with some faces on and passionate. The Lottery, with its showy weekly prizes, was the only public event at which interested by Prole. It was more than likely that the Lottery was the reason main, if not the only one for which millions of Prole still had some attachment to life. It was their major source of pleasure, their margin of folly, took the place of drugs, intellectual stimulant. When it came to the Lottery, even people who could barely read and write became capable of the calculations more difficult and surprising effort of memory. There was a whole category of people who made a living just by selling more complicated winning systems, predictions and lucky charms. Winston did not have the hands-on, with regard the Lottery, which was the business of the Ministry of Plenty, but he knew anyway (as everyone knew, the party) that the premiums were largely entirely fictitious. Only small sums were actually paid, but the winners of major awards (which were, on paper, even fabulous) people were simply invented, which did not exist at all. Since it was impossible to make effective communication between one place and one from Oceania, this trick was very easy to implement.

The differences today are not that many. Of course the prizes are not fictitious and are delivered normally, but if we think that the last successful extraction now or in six months, have been played 1.4 billion euro in Superenalotto we can well see that there is so much difference between Orwell's Ministry of Abundance and our Treasury.