These days it is preparing the so-called Planning Document (Document of economic and financial). What is it? It 's a document in which the state enters its forecasts for economic developments over the medium term (usually for three years that follow) and establishes the goals it wants to achieve (debt, deficit / GDP ratio, etc.. )
The document just submitted expected for 2009, a decline of about 5.2 percentage points of GDP but is optimistic for 2010, assuming an economic recovery with growth of 0.5%.
As always, when making a forecast, it may be interesting (and funny) to see what had been said in the past to assess how reliable "economic models" which are based on these data (unless Berlusconi and Tremonti pull a big nut to settle percentage)
DPEF 2008 -2001: Prodi Government - Minister Padoa Schioppa (2007)
In 2008 the growth rate of gross domestic product should be equal to 1 , 9 percent . In three years the average annual growth of GDP is forecast 1, 7 percent.
DPEF 2009-20013: Berlusconi Government - Minister Tremonti (2008)
Based on current projections, in 2009 the growth rate of gross domestic product would be equal to 0.9 percent . [..] In the next four years the average annual growth of GDP is forecast slightly below 1, 5 percent .
We can rest easy!
0 comments:
Post a Comment